Gütersloh, March 19, 2024 – The quality of democracy in developing and transformation countries has been on a steady decline for the past 20 years, according to the latest findings of the Transformation Index of the Bertelsmann Stiftung. The tenth edition of the index, which surveyed 137 countries, revealed that only 63 remain democracies, while a majority are now classified as autocracies. However, there is still hope for reversing this trend, as demonstrated by the examples of Brazil and Poland where voters have successfully rejected authoritarianism.
The BTI, established almost 20 years ago, initially faced less pressure from democratic erosion. Today, however, almost a third of the countries surveyed show the lowest level of political participation opportunities ever recorded by the index. In the last two years alone, elections in 25 countries were deemed less free and fair, while assembly and association rights were restricted in 32 states and freedom of expression was curtailed in 39 countries. This gradual erosion of democracy has provided a pathway for the establishment of authoritarian rule, as seen in the cases of Bangladesh, Mozambique, and Türkiye.
Despite this, there are still democracies that have been able to withstand the pressure. The Baltic States, as well as Taiwan, South Korea, Costa Rica, Chile, and Uruguay, have successfully achieved transformation by emphasizing the rule of law, strategic prioritization, participatory processes, and inclusion in their governance. This has led to strong outcomes in areas such as education, healthcare, infrastructure, and living standards, ultimately strengthening democracy as a whole.
To combat the erosion of democracy, the BTI stresses the importance of institutions and mechanisms of oversight such as the judiciary, parliament, and the media. In some East-Central and Southeastern European countries, including Czechia, Moldova, North Macedonia, Poland, and Slovenia, as well as in Latin America in countries like Brazil, Guatemala, and Honduras, free and (partially) fair elections have brought about change and served as a means of halting authoritarian trends. “Authoritarian trends can be stopped at the ballot box,” says Hauke Hartmann, Senior Expert at the Bertelsmann Stiftung. “This requires a mobilization of civil society prior to elections and a return to the rule of law after the elections.”
The resilience of civil society plays a crucial role in defending democracy, as seen in recent examples from Brazil, Kenya, and Zambia where civil society has worked to ensure fair elections and uphold their integrity. In Poland and Sri Lanka, successful mobilization efforts have also safeguarded civil and social rights. These instances highlight the importance of uniting street-level activism with institutional checks on government power to effectively resist authoritarian trends. The BTI also notes that cooperation among interest groups and the self-organizational capacities of civil society remain robust.
The latest BTI findings also suggest that the claim by authoritarian leaders that their states are governed more efficiently than democracies due to streamlined decision-making processes is false. In fact, the report reveals that 45 regimes plagued by disorganization and corruption are at the bottom of the efficiency scale, spanning from Cambodia to Venezuela to Zimbabwe, nearly all of which are ruled with an iron fist. While a few autocratic regimes demonstrate efficient governance, they are a rare exception.
The correlation between the quality of democracy and good governance is significant, particularly in terms of consensus-building. The report notes that in 80 countries, the ability and willingness to foster consensus has declined over the past decade, marking the most significant setback in the realm of good governance. “In many cases, governments have neglected efforts to cultivate societal consensus for too long. Continuous dialogue and inclusivity in decision-making processes are not weaknesses but strengths of democratic governance,” says Sabine Donner, Senior Expert at the Bertelsmann Stiftung. “Good policymaking remains one of the most potent responses to authoritarian challenges.”
The Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Transformation Index (BTI) has been analyzing and evaluating the quality of democracy, economic performance, and governance worldwide since 2006. The current sample includes 137 developing and transformation countries. The assessment is based on qualitative input provided by comprehensive country reports, totaling over 5,000 pages. These reports are the result of a collaborative process involving nearly 300 experts from leading universities and think tanks across more than 120 countries. The review period for the current edition was from February 1, 2021, through January 31, 2023. The BTI is the only international comparative index that measures the quality of governance using data collected by the project itself and offers a comprehensive analysis of the role of political steering functions in transformation processes.
For more information, please contact:
Dr. Hauke Hartmann, Phone: +49 (0) 52 41 81 81 389
E-Mail: hauke.hartmann@bertelsmann-stiftung.de
Sabine
