Nigel Farage, leader of the Reform party, made a bold declaration today that net migration in the United Kingdom should be reduced to zero. This statement has sparked debate and raised questions about the current state of migration, which has reached high levels in recent years.
However, this statement also brings to light an important question: when was the last time the UK experienced zero or negative net migration, meaning the number of people leaving the country was equal to or greater than the number entering?
According to recent election updates, Labour candidate Diane Abbott has made the cut for the party after leader Keir Starmer’s admission. But the answer to this question may surprise some, as for much of Britain’s post-war history, the country actually had negative net migration. From 1947 to the early 1980s, more people were leaving the UK than entering it.
This was not seen as a positive trend at the time, as policymakers were concerned about the “brain drain” of talented individuals leaving the country. During this time, Britain was recovering from post-war rationing and had a slower growing economy compared to other countries. In the 1960s and ’70s, high inflation and unemployment also made the UK a less desirable place to live and work.
However, it is important to note that this trend is not solely determined by government policies. While it may seem that the government has the power to control net migration levels, it is largely influenced by the state of the economy. When a country is performing well and has a strong economy with job opportunities, more people tend to want to come and live there, resulting in positive net migration. Conversely, during times of economic hardship and high unemployment, net migration tends to shift into negative territory.
This is not the only factor that affects migration patterns. For example, the UK saw a significant increase in migration numbers after the introduction of new post-Brexit rules in 2020. Similarly, in 1988, when freedom of movement within Europe was introduced, many Britons took advantage of this and migrated to other European countries, leading to negative net migration in the UK.
Despite politicians’ promises to lower migration levels and the implementation of migration caps, it is ultimately the state of the economy that drives migration flows. History has shown that the last time the UK experienced negative net migration was in 1992 and 1993, during a period of deep recession, high unemployment, and double-digit interest rates.
However, recent migration patterns in the UK have been far from normal. Adjusted for the size of the population, there has never been a year in history with as high net migration levels as in the past couple of years. This is a combination of various factors, such as the arrival of migrants from countries like Ukraine and Hong Kong, the introduction of new post-Brexit migration rules, and the impact of the pandemic.
It is worth noting that the recent influx of migrants is not limited to one issue. The number of people arriving in small boats over the Channel last year was just under 30,000, while the number of students and their dependents was 379,000. Additionally, 423,000 people arrived in the UK for work and their dependents. Even when excluding dependents or solely focusing on work-related migration, these numbers are unprecedented.
Despite the rhetoric of politicians and their proposed policies to address migration, it is not clear how any of the major parties’ proposals will significantly reduce net migration levels. Furthermore, achieving Farage’s desired goal of zero net migration would likely result in serious economic consequences. The UK still remains an attractive place for individuals to live and work, and with labor shortages due to the pandemic, there are still many reasons for people to migrate to the UK through legal channels.
