Brussels, Belgium – As Europeans prepare to cast their ballots in the upcoming European Parliament elections, a new report has shed light on the potential impact of years of austerity policies on voter confidence in democratic accountability. The Berggruen Governance Index (BGI) report, released on Tuesday by researchers from the University of Oxford, the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), and the Hertie School in Germany, points to a possible surge in support for right-wing parties.
According to the report, policies such as crisis-driven austerity measures and a lack of proactive measures to stimulate economic growth have eroded public trust in democratic institutions. This decline in confidence has created an opening for right-wing populism to gain traction.
“Protest votes often take the form of a far-right vote,” says Edward L. Knudsen, one of the report’s authors and a doctoral researcher in international relations at the University of Oxford. “Austerity creates a rise in far-right populism. Discontent moves right, not left.”
Knudsen and his co-author Helmut K. Anheier presented their findings at a press conference in Brussels on Tuesday, just days before the European Parliament elections on June 6-9. The report, titled “Right-wing Populism, the State, and Democracy: Governance Performance and the 2024 European Parliament Elections,” highlights the decline in democratic accountability as a result of prolonged budget cuts and austerity measures in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent Eurocrisis.
The report reveals that while Europe remains a region of high wealth and quality of life, there are signs of a potential decline in the future. The researchers point to a growing polarization and lack of political choice as contributing factors to the rise of right-wing populism.
With a focus on three main indicators – Democratic Accountability, State Capacity, and Public Goods Provision – the report shows that Western Europe generally outperforms Central and Eastern Europe in all three areas, but declines can be seen across the board.
Anheier warns that for every point drop in democratic accountability, there is a 1.5 point increase in right-wing vote share. He also notes that national governments hold the key to reversing this trend, stating that “national governments are in the driver’s seat” when it comes to changing course on austerity policies.
To arrive at their findings, the researchers used several hundred criteria to assess the state of democracy in Europe. The report highlights how the management of many European countries has led to a growing backlash and a lack of confidence in democratic accountability.
However, Anheier and Knudsen see a potential for further right-wing gains if issues such as migration and regional differences are not addressed. They point to Hungary and Poland as countries that have been left behind economically and Italy, which has experienced decades of economic stagnation, as potential sources of concern.
Despite the bleak outlook, the researchers stress the importance of proactive measures to rebuild faith in democracy. They urge governments to end austerity policies and invest in growth to reduce inequalities and address challenges such as climate change and migration.
The report’s authors also emphasize the need for a long-term approach, calling on governments to plan beyond the next election cycle. They believe that a change in political culture, with more representatives from the business and entrepreneurial sectors, could help steer Europe away from the far right and towards a more diverse and sustainable economy.
The release of the report, which was conducted by the Luskin School of Public Affairs at UCLA in cooperation with the Los Angeles-based Berggruen Institute and the Hertie School, has been covered by the Democracy News Alliance (DNA), a joint initiative between Agence France-Presse (AFP), Agenzia Nazionale Stampa Associata (ANSA), The Canadian Press (CP), Deutsche Presse-Agentur (dpa), and PA Media (PA).
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For further coverage by the DNA, visit the digital newsroom at https://www.presseportal.de/en/nr/174021. For more information, contact Christian Röwekamp at roewekamp.christian@dpa.com.
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