The UK may see a rise in the cost of bread, biscuits, and beer this year, as a result of the unusually wet autumn and winter impacting UK harvests. According to recent research, there could be a decrease of four million tonnes (17.5%) in the production of wheat, oats, barley, and oilseed rape compared to last year.
The adverse weather conditions have led to lower levels of planting, while floods and storms over the winter have caused additional losses for farmers. These predictions come at a time when the rate of price increases for many food items is starting to slow with a decrease in inflation.
The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) conducted a thorough analysis of forecasts from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHBD) and government yield data. The results showed a “real risk” of increased costs for producers, potentially leading to higher prices for beer, biscuits, and bread, according to lead analyst Tom Lancaster.
The ECIU also noted that the wet weather is still causing disruptions in the planting of spring crops such as barley, which could affect beer prices. Additionally, potato prices may also see an increase in the coming months, as growers are warning of a significant shortage in the autumn due to persistent wet weather. The planting of this year’s potato crop has been delayed across much of northern Europe, with farmer Colin Chappell from Lincolnshire stating that the situation is “very hit and miss.”
The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) recently stated that extreme weather is one of the biggest threats to UK food security. As the climate continues to warm, it is predicted that warmer and wetter winters will become more common, further impacting crop production.
According to the research, the total drop in production could be even more significant, reaching over five million tonnes (21.2%) when compared to the average harvest from 2015-2023. Wheat production is expected to be particularly hard hit, with an estimated decrease of 26.5% compared to last year. This is due to the higher quality requirements for milling wheat, which will be more challenging for farmers to achieve in wet conditions.
The owner of Kingsmill and Ryvita, Associated British Foods, recently warned of potential price increases if the cost of grains in the UK is not offset by larger harvests abroad.
Tom Lancaster from the ECIU emphasized the importance of the government’s green farming schemes in helping farmers invest in their soils to recover more quickly from floods and droughts. He also noted the need for support for foreign farmers, as half of the UK’s food is imported.
Lancaster added that “moving faster to net-zero emissions is the only guaranteed way to limit these impacts and maintain our food security.” William Kendall, the farmer behind Green & Blacks chocolate, also stressed the significance of using “regenerative farming methods” to enhance soil capacity and prevent flash flooding downstream. He believes this not only leads to better crops at a lower cost for farmers but also decreases the risk of severe weather events.
